If demography is destiny of a country, Italy can be considered moribund. This indicates the Wall Street Journal in an editorial by the eloquent title "Italy, RIP" (Italy, rest in peace), signed by journalist-writer Giulio Meotti citing a study by James Vaupel German director of demographic research, according to which if it continues the current trend of falling birth rates, the Italians now living and their children will remain 40 years from only 10 million.
The greatest threat to the inhabitants of the beautiful country are facing, it is stated in the article, is that dell'autoimmolazione population. Since 1994 - the figures quoted - the number of births is routinely exceeded by that of deaths, fertility is at its minimum, 1.3 children per woman. In the sixties, was 2 children per couple.
The crisis of the birthrate, says the WSJ, is likely to have disastrous economic and social consequences. Already today, 22 percent of the Italian population in retirement age, one of the highest rates worldwide. Italy is also intended to security on 15 percent of GDP (gross domestic product), more than any other European nation. Italy is not the only country on the brink of demographic suicide, said the editorial. But it is the first in the world who live the so-called "crossing over", where what the number of those under 20 is lower than that of over 60. By 2050, the newspaper announced, 60 percent of Italian children of older generations will not have brothers, sisters, cousins, uncles or aunts of First Instance.
Not the result they imagined scientists and Nobel Prize "Club of Rome 'in '68 that denounced the dangers of possible overcrowding, the result of baby boomer. "Secular prophets' calling for a turnaround to face any economic crisis and was heavily influenced by the thesis of Georgescu-Roegen, author of the book" the décroissance Demain "(Tomorrow, the decrease).
A paradoxical situation is that the lower rates of fertility - we read the editorial - are concentrated in the most religious countries in Europe, including Catholic Italy. The highest birth rates are concentrated instead in the secular and secular northern Europe, especially Scandinavia. And little seems to be serve the welfare of choices: five months full pay and six months' salary reduced, in Italy''motherhood''is''well paid by comparison with the U.S. or Israel, the two developed countries with the highest fertility rates high''.
ISTAT simply reply that according to his studies in 2050 will be 60 million Italians living, how can this difference between the two estimates fifty million? Probably the 10 million mentioned in the WSJ refers to people born in Italy and Italian ancestors, residents may instead be estimated by ISTAT for the vast majority of children and grandchildren of immigrants, but that the ISTAT is careful not to say it.
At this stage, therefore, be postponed and social policies necessary to support the family, a true pillar of society, the heart of the consolidation and strengthening of our community. Against the alarming decline of births should be taken measures encouraging and supporting the natural family and traditional. For one thing such as a monthly allowance to housewives who prefer to stay home to play a key role in support of the family and then society
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